Tag: UFC on FOX 29

UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje Punch Drunk Predictions

UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje Punch Drunk Predictions

I’ve got family in town and have been running around for the entire 36 hours they’ve been here. The next 8 days of my life are planned down to the minute. There is little time for idle chatter, so here we go.

These are the UFC on FOX: Poirier vs. Gaethje Punch Drunk Predictions.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

The big question for me in this one is “can Poirier win a big fight” and I’m still leaning towards no. He’s been a fringe contender for the last couple years across two divisions, but whenever that key fight that could carry him into the championship mix comes up, Poirier falters or something happens that causes the fight to get ruled a No Contest.

Additionally, Gaethje is the kind of guy that is going to draw Poirier away from his game plan and lure him into a brawl and that favours Gaethje, who has shown a greater ability to take punishment and return heavy fire.

I have a feeling this one doesn’t make it out of the first round, but it should be an absolute smoke show for as long as it lasts.

Prediction: Justin Gaethje

Carlos Condit vs. Alex Oliveira

Oliveira is gritty and dangerous and capable of hanging in a knock-down, drag-out scrap, but I think Condit will get back into the win column here.

As long as the former interim welterweight champion is firing on all cylinders – or at least 85% of his cylinders – he should be able to push the pace and put hands on the Brazilian “Cowboy,” who tends to trust his chin and his hands more than he tries to avoid punches and escape bad situations. Condit still has a diverse arsenal and a ton of experience, so after flubbing his comeback late last year against Neil Magny, I expect “The Natural Born Killer” to earn a victory in this one.

Prediction: Carlos Condit

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori

I’m very tempted to pick the upset because Rob Wilkinson got Adesanya down three times and I think Vettori has a much better top game than the Australian veteran. That being said, Adesanya defended 12 more takedown attempts and was able to piece up “Razor Rob” en route to stopping him in the second and Vettori has a bad habit of stopping punches with his face.

I do think this will be a much closer fight than most seem to be envisioning – not because I’m don’t think Adesanya is a quality prospect, but because I think Vettori is much better than everyone is giving him credit for heading into this one. I truly believe we’ll learn a lot more about both athletes here and whoever ends up coming away with the win should established himself as the top prospect in the middleweight division.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya

Michelle Waterson vs. Cortney Casey

Unless Casey comes out looking to engage in a staring match like she did against Felice Herrig, I think she’s got the more active, more potent game and will end up handing Waterson her third straight loss.

Tecia Torres was able to find success in the grappling department opposite Waterson last time out and I believe Casey is a bigger, stronger athlete than Torres and boasts superior chops on the ground. Remember, she quickly tapped Randa Markos and has spent this camp working exclusively with the crew at The MMA Lab, so don’t be surprised if she looks her best in this one.

Prediction: Cortney Casey

Preliminary Card Predictions

Antonio Carlos Junior def. Tim Boetsch
Muslim Salikhov def. Ricky Rainey
Wilson Reis def. John Moraga
Krzysztof Jotko def. Brad Tavares

Gilbert Burns def. Dan Moret
Lauren Mueller def. Shana Dobson
Yushin Okami def. Dhiego Lima
Arjan Bhullar def. Adam Wieczorek
Matthew Lopez def. Alejandro Perez
Luke Sanders def. Patrick Williams

2018 Predictions Record: 64-48-0 (.571)